30 Losses at Marina One Alone. What Singapore's Most Unprofitable Condos Have in Common.
Everyone’s talking about how the property market is stable, how new launches are selling like hotcakes, how River Modern moved 90% in a weekend. But somewhere in the data, there’s a less cheerful story playing out.
In 2025, Marina One Residences recorded 30 unprofitable transactions. That’s 30 owners who sold for less than they bought. Not in some forgotten suburban project. In Marina Bay. District 1. Singapore’s most prestigious postcode.
And it’s not just Marina One.
The usual suspects
Reflections at Keppel Bay had 29 unprofitable deals, including 3 that crossed the million-dollar loss mark. The worst one: a 3-bedder bought in 2013 for $4.18 million, sold last year for $2.8 million. That’s a $1.38 million haircut.
OUE Twin Peaks had more losing transactions than profitable ones. 19 unprofitable sales. At a District 9 address. That stings.
Marina Bay Residences saw one unit lose $3 million in 3 years. Marina Collection at Sentosa recorded a $3.675 million loss on a unit held since 2008. Nearly 2 decades of holding, and you come out $3.675 million poorer.
Over at The Sail @ Marina Bay, the story’s similar. Premium address, underwhelming returns.
What they all have in common
Here’s the thing that nobody wants to say out loud: all these condos are in prime locations.
District 1. District 4. District 9. These aren’t bad addresses. They’re some of the best in Singapore. And yet, 40 condos had literally zero profitable transactions in 2025. All seven condos with more than 10 unprofitable transactions are under 20 years old with at least 75 years of lease remaining.
So lease decay isn’t the problem. Location isn’t the problem.
The problem is entry price.
Buying at the peak is expensive (obviously)
Marina One’s average price has dropped 19.9% from its 2018 peak. If you bought in 2018 at the top of the cycle, you’ve been underwater for 7 years. The unit that lost $1.154 million was bought at $2,406 psf in 2018. It sold at $1,894 psf. That’s a 21% decline on a per-square-foot basis.
Reflections at Keppel Bay’s biggest loser paid $2,412 psf in 2013, well above the development’s average of $2,037 psf at the time. Overpaying relative to the project’s own benchmark is a quiet killer.
The ABSD effect nobody talks about
Before 2023, foreign buyers were a significant chunk of the demand for CBD and waterfront condos. Marina Bay, Keppel Bay, Sentosa, these were playgrounds for international money.
Then the government slapped a 60% ABSD on foreigners. That’s not a speed bump. That’s a wall.
The entire buyer pool for these prime condos shrank overnight. Fewer foreign buyers means fewer competing bids, which means lower transaction prices. Owners who bought when foreign demand was high are now selling into a market where that demand has evaporated.
It’s a structural shift, not a cycle.
The amenities gap
Marina One looks stunning on paper. Twin 34-storey towers in the CBD, connected to Marina Bay MRT, surrounded by office towers and fancy restaurants.
But there’s no school within 1km. No proper neighbourhood mall within walking distance. No wet market, no hawker centre in the immediate vicinity. For a family with kids, it’s basically unlivable without a car.
Compare that to Normanton Park or Costa Del Sol, condos in less glamorous locations that have been appreciating steadily. Why? Because they’re near schools, near amenities, near the stuff people actually need day to day.
The CBD is great for work. It’s not great for living. And prices eventually reflect that.
So what’s the lesson here?
A few things, actually.
Don’t overpay relative to the project average. If you’re paying 10% above the development’s mean psf, you’re already starting in a hole. The market doesn’t care that you really wanted the higher floor or the better view. It prices everything back to the mean eventually.
Foreign buyer premiums are gone. If you bought a CBD or Sentosa condo before 2023 with the assumption that foreign demand would keep pushing prices up, that thesis is dead. The 60% ABSD isn’t going away.
Liveability trumps prestige. Sounds obvious when you say it out loud, but people keep buying trophy addresses and then acting surprised when families with school-going kids don’t want to pay $3 million to live in a CBD tower with no playground in sight.
Holding period doesn’t guarantee profit. Marina Collection’s biggest loser held for 17 years. Reflections’ worst loss was a 12-year hold. Time doesn’t heal a bad entry price.
The awkward truth
In a market where everyone says “property always goes up,” these numbers are a cold shower. 40 condos with zero profitable transactions. Million-dollar losses at iconic addresses.
The broader market is healthy. New launches are moving. Resale prices are stable. SORA is low. But within that healthy market, there are pockets of pain that most people don’t see because they’re not looking.
Next time someone tells you “just buy prime, cannot go wrong,” show them the Marina One data.
