The Real Estate Signal Hidden in MOE's P1 Vacancy Cuts
MOE cut P1 vacancies by 1,460 places this year, citing demographics. But the cuts weren’t spread evenly. Sengkang and Punggol took the biggest hits. Tampines added places.
You might wonder: why?
Demographics in Singapore are a downstream signal of where HDB has built BTOs. This post maps where 5-9-year-olds live today and how that has shifted since 2020, using SingStat data across all 55 URA planning areas, sorted by current population.
The headline
Sengkang and Punggol still top the chart for absolute population (of young children 5-9 years old). But both are past peak.
Tampines is the only mature OCR town still genuinely growing. Tengah just showed up on the demographic map for the first time. And Toa Payoh has quietly resurged thanks to Bidadari.
Here’s the full 55-area picture.
Population of young children
| # | Planning Area | 2020 | 2023 | 2025 | Δ 1yr | Δ 3yr | Δ 5yr | Δ 5yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sengkang | 17,650 | 16,700 | 15,900 | −600 | −1,350 | −1,750 | −9.9% |
| 2 | Punggol | 15,340 | 15,970 | 15,210 | −540 | −690 | −130 | −0.8% |
| 3 | Tampines | 11,500 | 13,100 | 14,860 | +680 | +2,430 | +3,360 | +29.2% |
| 4 | Woodlands | 12,550 | 12,140 | 11,750 | −110 | −530 | −800 | −6.4% |
| 5 | Yishun | 11,550 | 12,030 | 11,610 | −310 | −330 | +60 | +0.5% |
| 6 | Jurong West | 13,030 | 11,910 | 11,140 | −420 | −1,000 | −1,890 | −14.5% |
| 7 | Bedok | 11,480 | 11,660 | 11,110 | −320 | −550 | −370 | −3.2% |
| 8 | Hougang | 9,450 | 9,810 | 9,720 | −270 | −150 | +270 | +2.9% |
| 9 | Choa Chu Kang | 9,320 | 9,080 | 8,770 | −250 | −420 | −550 | −5.9% |
| 10 | Bukit Batok | 6,810 | 8,280 | 8,200 | −70 | +440 | +1,390 | +20.4% |
| 11 | Toa Payoh | 5,120 | 5,760 | 6,460 | +190 | +1,000 | +1,340 | +26.2% |
| 12 | Sembawang | 5,810 | 6,230 | 6,440 | +50 | +300 | +630 | +10.8% |
| 13 | Pasir Ris | 6,570 | 6,500 | 6,250 | −140 | −290 | −320 | −4.9% |
| 14 | Bukit Panjang | 7,090 | 6,650 | 6,070 | −300 | −770 | −1,020 | −14.4% |
| 15 | Bukit Timah | 4,810 | 5,450 | 5,730 | +90 | +370 | +920 | +19.1% |
| 16 | Ang Mo Kio | 6,080 | 6,050 | 5,650 | −260 | −530 | −430 | −7.1% |
| 17 | Bukit Merah | 6,460 | 5,910 | 5,480 | −210 | −710 | −980 | −15.2% |
| 18 | Clementi | 4,260 | 4,770 | 5,170 | +100 | +570 | +910 | +21.4% |
| 19 | Geylang | 4,270 | 4,560 | 4,670 | +40 | +480 | +400 | +9.4% |
| 20 | Serangoon | 4,340 | 4,630 | 4,440 | −30 | −250 | +100 | +2.3% |
| 21 | Bishan | 3,730 | 3,770 | 3,840 | +50 | +180 | +110 | +2.9% |
| 22 | Queenstown | 4,170 | 4,030 | 3,830 | −220 | −340 | −340 | −8.2% |
| 23 | Kallang | 4,130 | 4,030 | 3,780 | −170 | −280 | −350 | −8.5% |
| 24 | Novena | 2,790 | 2,790 | 2,910 | +70 | +50 | +120 | +4.3% |
| 25 | Marine Parade | 2,430 | 2,470 | 2,410 | 0 | −130 | −20 | −0.8% |
| 26 | Jurong East | 2,890 | 2,590 | 2,360 | −190 | −330 | −530 | −18.3% |
| 27 | Tanglin | 1,600 | 1,600 | 1,590 | +10 | −50 | −10 | −0.6% |
| 28 | Tengah | 0 | 0 | 1,060 | +740 | +1,060 | +1,060 | n/a |
| 29 | River Valley | 600 | 670 | 680 | +20 | −20 | +80 | +13.3% |
| 30 | Newton | 540 | 600 | 590 | +20 | +10 | +50 | +9.3% |
| 31 | Outram | 780 | 530 | 460 | 0 | −160 | −320 | −41.0% |
| 32 | Rochor | 420 | 350 | 360 | −20 | −40 | −60 | −14.3% |
| 33 | Singapore River | 240 | 300 | 310 | −30 | +20 | +70 | +29.2% |
| 34 | Southern Islands | 130 | 160 | 170 | +10 | +30 | +40 | +30.8% |
| 35 | Downtown Core | 80 | 100 | 90 | −20 | 0 | +10 | +12.5% |
| 36 | Mandai | 90 | 100 | 90 | 0 | −10 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 37 | Orchard | 30 | 30 | 40 | 0 | 0 | +10 | +33.3% |
| 38 | Museum | 20 | 20 | 30 | +10 | +10 | +10 | +50.0% |
| 39 | Seletar | 20 | 10 | 20 | +10 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 40 | Sungei Kadut | 30 | 20 | 20 | 0 | −10 | −10 | −33.3% |
| 41 | Changi | 10 | 10 | 0 | −20 | −10 | −10 | −100.0% |
Areas 42–55 (Boon Lay, Central Water Catchment, Changi Bay, Lim Chu Kang, Marina East, Marina South, North-eastern Islands, Paya Lebar, Pioneer, Simpang, Straits View, Tuas, Western Islands, Western Water Catchment) all show zero residents in this age band, mostly because they’re industrial, military, or undeveloped.
What stands out
Sengkang and Punggol are past peak. Sengkang fell 1,750 over five years, 600 of that in the past year alone. Punggol stayed flat over five years (−130) but dropped 540 in the last 12 months. The BTO wave from a decade ago is aging out, and new families aren’t replacing them at the same pace.
Tampines is the only mature OCR town still surging. +3,360 over five years, +680 in the past year. Tampines North completions plus a big enough base to absorb without dilution.
Tengah just showed up. Zero through 2023, 1,060 in 2025. Second-biggest 1-year jump after Tampines. The Vela Bay EC launch in April was 99.72% subscribed, the market voting on the same trajectory.
Toa Payoh is back. +1,340 over five years on Bidadari completions. New BTO blocks plus a mature, well-connected estate.
Bukit Batok wave has crested. +1,390 over five years but −70 last year. Tengah-bound families are now absorbing into Tengah directly.
Jurong West and Bukit Panjang are hollowing out. Both down close to 1,000 over five years, negative on every horizon. Older estates with no redevelopment catalysts.
Bukit Timah, Clementi, Bishan: persistent slow growth. Adding 100-300 a year. Established schools, mature amenities, structural rather than speculative demand.
What this means for property investors
The data is a leading indicator for where family-sized HDB and condo demand is heading. Where the 5-9 cohort is growing, you’ll see sustained pressure on 3-4 bedders, school catchment premiums, and upgrader flow. Where it’s shrinking, that pressure is fading even if the absolute population is still high.
Family-buyer demand is migrating. Buying in Punggol because “lots of young families live there” is a backward-looking thesis. The forward story is Tampines, Tengah, Toa Payoh, and the smaller mature estates.
The North-East upgrader thesis needs a rethink. Sengkang and Punggol still have plenty of families, but the inflow isn’t matching the outflow. For a 10-year hold, the 1-year column matters more than the absolute population.
Tengah is a slow-burn story. Small base, highest absolute growth rate in the country. EC and BTO supply still ramping. One of the few places where buying ahead of the demographic actually works.
Mature small estates compound quietly. Bukit Timah, Bishan, Clementi, Toa Payoh. Consistent young-family inflow, no headlines, structural demand.
