HDB Resale Prices Just Dropped for the First Time in 7 Years. But 9 Towns Hit All-Time Highs.
The headline sounds dramatic: HDB resale prices fell for the first time in nearly 7 years.
The reality? It’s a 0.1% dip. The Resale Price Index went from 203.5 to 203.4 in Q1 2026. That’s basically a rounding error.
But it matters. Not because the sky is falling, but because it tells you where the market is actually headed.
The numbers
HDB’s flash estimate released yesterday showed the RPI dropping 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. Last time this happened was Q2 2019, before COVID turned the property market into a casino.
6,179 flats were resold in Q1 2026, down 4.5% from the same period last year. Fewer transactions, marginally lower prices.
But here’s where it gets weird.
9 towns set all-time record prices in the same quarter. Bukit Batok, Bukit Merah, Clementi, Pasir Ris, Punggol, Queenstown, Sembawang, Sengkang, and Tampines all hit new peaks. A 5-room flat at Tiong Bahru View in Bukit Merah went for $1.648 million.
And 412 flats crossed the million-dollar mark in Q1 alone. That’s on pace to smash last year’s record of 1,594 million-dollar flats.
So which is it? Prices falling or hitting records?
Both. That’s the point.
Two-speed market
The market is splitting in two.
At the top: mature estates, good MRT access, newer builds near MOP. Still setting records. Buyers paying premium for premium locations, not blinking.
Everywhere else: softening. Older flats, weaker locations, shorter leases. This is where the 0.1% dip lives.
Not surprising. The 13,480 flats hitting MOP this year are arriving. More resale options means buyers have leverage. They’re pickier.
HDB just confirmed June 2026 will offer 6,900 BTO flats across Ang Mo Kio, Bishan, Bukit Merah, Sembawang, and Woodlands. The Berlayar site alone accounts for 1,960 units. That’s a lot of supply pulling first-timers away from resale.
What it means for you
First-time buyers: you’re in a better negotiating position than you’ve been in years. Use it. But don’t expect a crash. A 0.1% dip with 9 towns hitting records isn’t a correction. It’s a pause.
Mature estate holders: relax. Bukit Merah, Queenstown, Clementi, Tampines are still setting records. The premium that well-located HDBs command is actually widening.
Non-mature estate holders: be realistic about pricing. The days of listing 10% above last transacted and getting offers within a week are fading.
A 0.1% dip in the RPI while 412 flats sell for over a million bucks is probably exactly the outcome the government was aiming for.
